Office of the Chief Economist

Mission Statement

The mission of the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is to conduct rigorous economic and econometric analysis of derivatives markets; to foster market transparency by disseminating its research to market participants and the general public; and to partner with other CFTC divisions and offices to integrate economic reasoning and data analysis into Commission policy and cost-benefit considerations.

A list of the current members of the Office of the Chief Economists can be found on our Biographies page, which includes backgrounds as well as research interests. The office is led by Scott Mixon (Acting Chief Economist).

Featured Research

Do Agricultural Swaps Co-Move with Equity Markets? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis (Christopher Burns and Daniel Prager)

  • We evaluate how groups of commodity traders react to changes in the VIX during the Covid-19 Crisis. Our results show that equity market shocks can affect traders in both commodity swaps and futures markets.
  • We find index swaps traders reduce their net long positions in response to tightening financial conditions, while commercial swaps traders absorb some of this risk by decreasing their net short positions.
  • Using proprietary data reported by swap dealers to the CFTC, we document the size and composition of 13 over-the-counter agricultural swaps markets
  • Total positions in these 13 agricultural swaps markets averaged $95 billion in total investment. In futures equivalent positions, this represented a little under half of total futures open interest between 2016 and 2021. 
  • Index investment represents the majority of OTC agricultural swaps activity. Index swaps activity represented 72% of all open swaps and $68.9 billion in notional value from 2016 to 2021. This contrasts with the futures market, where Commodity Index Trading activity constitutes about one-sixth of open interest.

For older research projects, please visit our Research Papers website.

 Information on Academic Collaboration